Editorial: The News - 27 June 2013

A judge survives

The long arm of the TTP has reached out once again, this time in an attempt to kill a senior member of the Sindh judiciary. A device attached to a motorbike, and weighing perhaps 8kg, was detonated remotely as Justice Maqbool Baqar of the Sindh High Court was passing by in his car on his way to the court. The powerful blast killed nine and injured 15 others unfortunate enough to be in the area at the time. Shops were damaged. Justice Baqar survived and is said to be recovering in a private hospital in Karachi. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan was quick to claim the crime, with its spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan saying that the TTP had attacked the judge because he delivered verdicts that did not comply with shariah laws and was taking decisions that were ‘harmful to the mujahideen.’
The judge was the subject of a precise hit that was based on good accurate intelligence and efficient construction of a remote-controlled device. There was a singular lapse of security on the part of the police and others who failed to spot a motorbike unattended in a place where any suspiciously parked vehicle ought to be the subject of alarm. That said the ubiquity of the motorbike in the city, as elsewhere, makes it difficult to regulate as has been demonstrated by bans on pillion-riding in the past. It remains to be seen whether there is going to be any CCTV footage that might give a clue as to who planted the deadly motorbike. Burns Road has a number of premises that might have caught useful evidence. Justice Baqar was possibly singled out because he had served in the anti-terrorism courts, exactly the kind of judge that the TTP would like to target. It is also reported that the judge had been receiving death threats. As the TTP claims this attack, it is becoming clear that the group has some sympathisers in-country who provide it with the required intel about its targets. The impunity with which the group attacks anything, from innocent climbers in a remote northern valley to a leading judge on one of the busiest roads in Karachi, shows the urgent need for a comprehensive counter-terrorism policy. Since the new government came to office, there has been much talk of developing a national security strategy and improved inter-agency coordination. It is time to see the action that should follow the talk – and see it now.

Growth or sloth?

Repairing the battered economy of Pakistan requires a multilayered approach. There is no single solution to the problems but getting the economic repairs all working in sync presents yet another set of difficulties. The cut by the State Bank of Pakistan of 50 basis points, effective from June 24, may go some way to reviving the economy but it is not in itself a cost-free option. Inflation is likely to be stimulated with the rise in fuel costs and General Sales Tax (GST), foreign exchange reserves are dwindling and as of June 14 stood at $6.2 billion plus there is a debt to be repaid to the IMF that can only be financed by seeking another loan – from the IMF. The new government got a warm welcome from stock exchanges around the country but the bounce is likely to be short-lived. The economy grew by 3.6 percent last year against a projected 4.3 percent – which the new government hopes to raise to 7 percent in the next three years. While the cut in interest rates will aid the government in paying the interest on its own debts, it is unlikely to do much to encourage inwards investment which has plummeted in recent years.
As the SBP works on one layer of the cake, the government and the IMF team now in Islamabad for the rest of the week work on another. The fiscal framework that initially received a cautious nod of approval by the IMF may be difficult to stack up in practice as the Federal Board of Revenue is having to revise its estimated collections downwards for the fourth time in this FY. Up until June 22, the FBR had collected Rs1,835 billion, a shortfall of Rs172 billion over the target of Rs2,007 billion as on June 30 – a date a few days away and an impossible target to reach. The coming talks with the IMF will be aimed at creating a fiscal framework of sufficient credibility and strength to allow Pakistan to approach the IMF for a further loan sometime in August or September. The IMF’s doubts began to emerge on Tuesday. It had wanted to see a tightening rather than a loosening of monetary policy to control the fiscal deficit. The government and the SBP instead delivered an inflationary cut in interest rates. As all this goes on there is the commitment to the early retirement of circular debt in the power sector and a security situation that seems to worsen by the hour. No matter how effective economic recovery plans may be on paper, the key to their real-time achievement is an improvement in the security environment nationally. That is going to need assertive action which thus far there is little evidence of beyond windy rhetoric.